Forecasting the reaction of a target market to a new product or service is one of the biggest challenges faced by marketers or organizations launching new products in the market. According to Perreault, Cannon and McCarthy (2011) and McQuarrie, effective forecasting of market reaction can only be achieved through conducting adequate, comprehensive and exhaustive market researches. This involves using various types of research such as focus groups, direct observations, consumer surveys and experimental researches.
In relation to forecasting market reaction for a new kind of disposable diaper that would not receive any promotion in the target market, I would use focus groups to obtain the perceptions, opinions, beliefs and attitudes of the target consumers towards the new diaper. This would help in obtaining reliable and valuable information that can be used during the forecasting. According to Kreuger and Casey (2009), focus groups often provide reliable information because the participants are free to talk about their views and perceptions about the new product in an unstructured and natural way. Feedbacks obtained from the focus groups and surveys would then be analyzed and used to forecast market reactions.
In addition, I would use observational research and surveys to gain an understanding of the cultures, beliefs, values and traditional practices of the target consumers. Lancaster, Massingham and Ashford (2011) also assert that information collected through observations and surveys is vital during forecasting of market reactions to the new product. I would also use observational research and surveys to gain a comprehensive understanding on how the target customers make consumption decisions as well as the various factors such as price and product features that affect consumption decisions of consumers. In my opinion, such understanding is vital in forecasting the market reaction to the new diaper.
Last but not least, I would use experimental research to test the acceptance of the new kind of disposable diaper amongst the target consumers. The results of the experimental research would assist in forecasting the reaction of the consumers towards the new diaper. Experimental research would also help in identifying the possible barriers that are likely to hinder the acceptance of the new diaper amongst the target consumers. For my part, knowledge on the possible barriers would help in forecasting the market reaction to the new diaper by providing alternative ways of managing the challenges. Experimental research would also help in plotting appropriate marketing strategies such as direct or personal selling that are likely to influence consumers to make more purchases of the new product. Through experimental research, the demand for the new product by consumers can be determined and appropriate forecasting made based on the results of the experiments.