All, who expresses the mankind prospects, consider it necessary to mention the great future of China. Really, the Chinese model of the development achieves impressing results as for the indicators of growth and space exploration. China has all the attributes of the great power: the nuclear weapon, means of its delivery, the space program, the veto in the UN Security Council, the efficient army and, certainly, great-power aspirations. China is also the most occupied country of the world. However, I think that all these successes of China are relative and everything depends on the decision of one ingenious person and his illness (or leaving from a post). Therefore, the future of China is vague. There are unresolved problems – poverty and modernization of the archaic economy. I hope that, in the next two decades, the economy of China will catch up the American one and become one of the dominating economies on a planet, thanks to the impressing growth of economy, increase in production and continuous expansion of sales markets of the Chinese production. This fact even more forces the western economists and political scientists to speak about the need of immediate revision of the relations with China towards friendliness and loyalty.
If to speak about the pushes of such great growth of China economy, it is necessary to note that China is a part of economy of the USA, as the most part of the American production is transferred to China. It can be explained by much cheaper labor in China in comparison with the USA and Europe that became a powerful argument for leading American multinational corporations for their activity expansion. Now, in many respects, the consumption in the USA is supplemented with the Chinese production and the Chinese income of the American corporations.
China is the main support of the American dollar because it has two trillion dollar reserves, and this support is very necessary for the USA. However, China, remaining “the main donor” of the dollar, exposes all new conditions. It is clear that the Americans do not like it, they got used that all the others obey them, but possible losses from the conflict to China force them to make concessions.
As a whole, I think, now it is necessary to speak about the appearance of “one more whale of world economy” which China is. The influence of China on the situation on the planet will increase every year, owing to the growth of its economic power. I understand that such a tendency is not favourable for the other dominating states, and the further growth of the world economy can become the hostage of the political and economic opposition of the leading countries of our planet.
I am convinced that China, finally, will surpass the USA, it will become the largest economy in the world. Most likely, the Chinese economy will continue its growing in the next 10-15 years and then its delay will be observed. It will happen when the income per capita in China will make 10 000 US dollars. It will allow the Chinese economy to come nearer to the sizes of the economy of the USA.
The growth of China as the main player of the capitalist world economy can become one of the most considerable events of the first half of the twenty first century. After more than two decades of the permanently rapid economic growth, China belongs — if to consider the parity of the purchasing power — 12 % of the world production; it is represented as the second-large economy in the world. China turned into the center of world industrial export and it plays an important role in financing of deficiency of the current account of the USA. According to some polls, 92 % of the Chinese are sure that the quality of their life is higher than their parents’ when those were at the same age.
I argue that phenomenal results of the economic development of China are caused by unique lines of the Chinese national character, such as diligence, dedication and unpretentiousness.
The rapid growth of the Chinese economy also caused a set of imbalances which the population suffers from — it is corruption, society stratification, environmental pollution and even loss of the cultural identity. If the whole world believes that China is the main economic force, capable in the near future to dominate on the planet, I consider that the USA is still inaccessible.
Probably, from far away China is seen much better but if to approach to it closely, it seems to me that the life and the economy of China are not so good at all. The international sociological service Pew Global interrogated the inhabitants of the country and found out that the Chinese were disturbed extremely by three factors — corruption, growth of inequality and food security. In my opinion, all these three things have extremely become aggravated after the crisis, whereas the personal welfare did not suffer in any way.
Nevertheless, China will surely become one of the largest economic powers. Probably, it will take the second place after the United States. The presence of China in the world scene will do good not only to the whole world but also the USA because in the world, in which America only dominates, very few people would like to live. The power of China is in the fact that it can be energetic, without entering confrontations. It is important for the USA today to turn China not into the enemy but into the partner because the future prosperity and stability around the world depends on it.